Marathon Pace Goal and Boston Qualifying Times

I thought I had the plan for my next two marathons. To recap, I ran my third marathon last May in Eugene in 3:38 (about 10 minutes faster than my previous best). My plan was to try for 3:30 in Portland in October, then take off another bite-sized 10-minute chunk and try for 3:20 in Eugene in May 2010.  That 3:20 is a big important number. For the next five years, that’s my Boston qualifying time. (My “BQ”.)*

My unexpected performance at the flat half has upset those fine-sounding plans. According to my favorite race performance calculator, with adequate training and under the same conditions, I should be able to run a 3:13 marathon. Now, the conditions won’t be the same: the Portland marathon course isn’t flat. The early hills and the nasty ups and downs around the bridge at mile 18 can and will take their toll, as can the big downhill during mile 23. But, still. 3:13! I can’t not go for the BQ.

Right now, I find it scary to go for something that aggressive compared to my previous marathons. I’ve put on a surge of speed over the last four months and I’m still not completely settled down when it comes to training and running at the appropriate paces for that speed. Put another way, I’ve done few enough training runs at a 7:30 pace or faster that it’s intimidating to think of going 26.2 at that speed.

Portland’s still a long way off. I still have 80 days left to train or to get injured, whichever comes first. I’ll be re-evaluating my pace goal again before the big day. But for now, 3:20 is my line in the sand.

*A 3:20 will get me into the 2011 Boston Marathon, when I’ll be 40. To qualify for the April 2010 Boston Marathon, when I’ll still be 39 — by a month — I’d actually need to run a 3:15. There’s an 18 month window for qualifying, so a 3:15 now would technically qualify me for both 2010 and 2011.